Oscar predictions: Best Picture, Actor, and Actress coming down to the wire in heated awards race
This has been far from an ordinary Oscar season.
Sure, each year has its fair share of ups, downs, pendulum swings, and flameouts, but this year has been especially noteworthy. Usually, by now, pundits and insiders can start to ascertain where things stand heading into Oscar night, and for most of the categories (Best Supporting Actor and Actress, for example), you can probably make a solid, educated guess as to who will take home the gold. But just when you think you’ve finally got it all figured out, the hammer drops again, and we’re left to throw our hands up and flip a coin. Not to mention the entire industry and town being completely upended by the horrific California wildfires, which almost saw the ceremony postponed (the nominations were delayed by two weeks).
Take Sean Baker’s wonderful "Pretty Women" for Gen-Z indie darling “Anora,” which won the prestigious Palme d'Or from Cannes and has been on a heater as of late, picking up major precursor awards from the Directors Guild, Writers Guild, and, perhaps most notably, the Producers Guild—the latter of which uses the same preferential ballot that the Oscars use when voting (meaning it’s not about being #1, but rather #2). Up until those statues were handed out, you could make a case that Brady Corbet’s engrossing three-and-a-half-hour epic “The Brutalist” was on its way to Best Picture glory for indie distributor A24. But alas, its momentum has stalled (which probably wasn’t helped by its recent controversy surrounding the use of AI).
Likewise, for the musical (and box-office juggernaut) “Wicked,” which, in November, seemed like the movie to beat. The Academy has a long-storied history of awarding movie musicals, but it peaked at the wrong time and has all but fizzled out heading into Oscar Sunday. I guess the Jon M. Chu-directed flick will have to settle for its over $700 million in worldwide ticket sales, though it should take home Oscar gold in some below-the-line categories, like Production Design and Costumes.
Perhaps the biggest shocker of the award season (aside from the body-horror masterpiece “The Substance” somehow sneaking its way into Best Picture) was Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez” completely imploding. When nominations were handed out, it seemed that the streamer might finally get the one thing they’ve chased after for nearly a decade: a Best Picture win. Leading the field with 13 nominations, Jacques Audiard’s musical about a cartel boss who retires and transitions into life as a woman has been riddled with one problem after another. Aside from the online backlash from people who dislike the movie for various reasons, it was lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón who would be the one to kneecap Netflix’s award campaign.
Instead of us celebrating Gascón’s milestone nomination for being the first trans woman to be nominated for Best Actress, a recent series of past tweets and comments were unearthed that put the final nail in the coffin.
Which brings us to Edward Berger’s riveting papal thriller “Conclave,” which has two major precursors heading into Oscar Sunday: both the BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television) and, most recently, the SAG ensemble award. Will it be enough to push it over the finish line, especially as current events have given this film a new, timely relevance?
Below are my Oscar predictions in all 24 categories.
BEST PICTURE: ANORA
Could Win: CONCLAVE
“Conclave” having the one-two punch of both the BAFTA and the SAG ensemble awards helps its narrative, but the lack of a nomination for director Edward Berger is notable. The only other movie in Oscar history to win the top slot without a directing nomination and with both the BAFTA/SAG combo was 2012’s “Argo.” It will be a close race (you also can’t discount “The Brutalist” or the well-liked Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown”), but I think Sean Baker’s indie darling “Anora,” with its massive DGA/WGA/PGA/Indie Spirit haul, has enough juice to get it over the finish line.
BEST DIRECTOR: SEAN BAKER – ANORA
Could win: Brady Corbet – THE BRUTALIST
For a long time, this seemed like Brady Corbet’s Oscar to lose. The actor-turned-director’s $10 million period epic “The Brutalist” is the type of bootstrap indie that requires a steady hand to see it through to fruition. But now, Sean Baker is in the driver’s seat. After winning the Directors Guild’s top prize, it seems poised that the filmmaker—who is a major champion of the theatrical experience and has never worked within the confines of the studio system, always opting instead to make his films for indie distributors—is going to walk away with the gold.
BEST ACTOR: ADRIEN BRODY – THE BRUTALIST
Could Win: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET – A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
This is a tough one. My heart wants man-of-the-moment Timothée Chalamet to pull the upset for his engrossing portrayal of Bob Dylan in James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown,” and his recent SAG win would suggest he’s got some support on his side. However, Oscar voting concluded before the SAG awards, making this category the hardest to predict. It would be historic if Chalamet won, as he would become the youngest Best Actor winner in history, taking the title from—yep, you guessed it—Adrien Brody, who memorably won the award at age 29 for his role in “The Pianist.” I’m sticking with Brody here, but I don’t feel great about it.
BEST ACTRESS: DEMI MOORE – THE SUBSTANCE
Could win: MIKEY MADISON – ANORA
Potential Spoiler: FERNANDA TORRES – I’M STILL HERE
Talk about a turn of events. Before the season started, I don’t think anyone expected Moore to be in the running for the Best Actress trophy for a film that is almost the exact opposite of what many would define as an “Oscar” movie. As someone who thought “The Substance” was the best movie of 2024, I couldn’t be more thrilled. A bizarre and absolutely bonkers body horror movie, cut from the same cloth as something like David Cronenberg’s “The Fly” (and featuring an insane, blood-soaked third act), getting Oscar love is one of the coolest things the Academy has ever done. You can’t rule out Mikey Madison for “Anora,” but she will be back. It’s Moore’s to lose.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR/ACTRESS:
ZOE SALDAÑA – EMILIA PÉREZ
KIERAN CULKIN – A REAL PAIN
You can take this to the bank: nobody is beating these two. Sorry Ariana Grande, but you can run it back next year with “Wicked: For Good.”
HERE ARE THE REST OF MY PREDICTIONS IN THE REMAINING CATEGORIES:
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: The Wild Robot (FLOW could play spoiler)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Conclave
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Anora
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Brutalist
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Wicked
BEST FILM EDITING: Conclave
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Substance
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Wicked
BEST SCORE: The Brutalist
BEST SONG: EL MAL – Emilia Pérez
BEST SOUND: Dune: Part Two
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune: Part Two
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: No Other Land
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: I’m Still Here
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: I Am Ready, Warden
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Man Who Could No Remain Silent
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Beautiful Men
The 97th edition of the Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien, will air Sunday, March 2nd at 7:00pm EST on ABC and streaming on Hulu.